LOS ANGELES, CA — A new El Nino outlook points to way above average rain across California and the southwestern United States this winter. The pattern is being compared to a blend of the 2004 to 2005 and 1983 to 1984 seasons. Forecasters say El Nino carries a chance of record rainfall in the Southwest, with both warm and cold storms expected. The stormy pattern could begin very soon.
Highest Rain Chances Focus on California and the Southwest
The outlook shows the highest chances for above-average rain across California, Baja California, and the Desert Southwest. Southern Nevada and Arizona also fall within the zone of strongest rain signals.
The wettest signal extends well offshore across the eastern Pacific toward the West Coast. This setup favors a steady stream of storms moving into the Southwest through the winter season.
Pacific Northwest and Western States Also Lean Wet
Above-average rain chances also extend north along the coast into Oregon, Washington, and parts of western Canada. Much of the interior West shows a wetter-than-normal signal as well.
Parts of southwestern Alaska show lower rain chances on the outlook. Hawaii and the central subtropical Pacific lean much drier than normal under this pattern.
Hybrid of 2004 to 2005 and 1983 to 1984 Seasons
The upcoming winter is being compared to a hybrid of the 2004 to 2005 and 1983 to 1984 seasons. Both of those winters are remembered for active weather patterns across the western United States.
Using past seasons as a guide helps forecasters estimate how this El Nino may unfold. However, every El Nino behaves a little differently, and conditions can change through the season.
Warm Rain and Cold Storms Expected at Different Times
This El Nino pattern is expected to bring both warm and cold storms to the Southwest. At times, storms may arrive with warm rain, which can lead to heavy rainfall and flooding concerns.
Other storms may bring strong northern winds and colder air. Those systems could produce snow at lower elevations than usual across parts of the region.
Southwest Residents Should Prepare Early for a Stormy Winter
With an active pattern possibly starting soon, residents across California and the Southwest should prepare early. Clearing gutters, checking drainage, and reviewing flood plans can help reduce storm impacts.
Those in mountain and higher desert areas should also prepare for possible snow. Residents should keep checking forecasts as individual storms begin to take shape.
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