PENSACOLA, FL — A tornado threat area is evolving across the Florida Panhandle on Sunday, including Pensacola, Destin, and Panama City. Numerous storms are ongoing, and just enough wind shear is developing alongside Gulf-sourced instability for a couple of storms to rotate. A Level 1 risk is in place, with a 2 percent chance of a tornado within the outlined area. Landfalling waterspouts are also possible along the coast.
Tornado Risk Area Stretches From Pensacola to the Big Bend Coast
The outlined tornado area begins just west of Pensacola and extends east along the coast through Destin and Panama City. It continues east toward the Big Bend coastline, covering much of the coastal Panhandle south of Interstate 10.
The risk area also includes nearby coastal waters in the Gulf. Inland areas such as Crestview sit near the northern edge, while Dothan, Andalusia, Bainbridge, and Quincy fall outside the main zone.
Level 1 Risk With a 2 Percent Tornado Chance
The tornado threat is rated Level 1, with a 2 percent probability of a tornado within 25 miles of any point in the outlined area. While this is a lower-end risk, it still means a brief tornado cannot be ruled out.
Any tornadoes that develop are expected to be weaker, below EF-2 strength. Even weaker tornadoes can still cause damage to trees, power lines, and structures.
Gulf Instability and Developing Shear Support Rotating Storms
Numerous storms are already moving across the Panhandle and nearby Gulf waters. Warm, moist air from the Gulf is providing instability that helps fuel these storms.
At the same time, wind shear is increasing just enough to allow a couple of storms to develop rotation. Storms that begin rotating can produce brief tornadoes with little advance warning.
Landfalling Waterspouts Possible Along the Coast
Waterspouts forming over the Gulf could move onshore along the Panhandle coastline. A waterspout that comes ashore becomes a tornado and can cause damage near beaches and coastal communities.
Beachgoers and boaters near Pensacola, Destin, and Panama City should stay alert for rapidly changing conditions. Anyone on the water should head to shore if storms approach.
Panhandle Residents Should Have a Way to Receive Warnings
Residents across the Florida Panhandle should have a reliable way to receive tornado warnings throughout the day. Weather radio, phone alerts, and local news are all good options.
If a tornado warning is issued, move to an interior room on the lowest floor away from windows. Conditions could change quickly as storms continue moving through the area.
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