MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA — A batch of rain and thunderstorms is expected to move across Mississippi and Alabama this weekend, putting Halloween plans on Saturday at risk. The latest GFS model brings the rain in faster, pointing to a wet afternoon and evening across the region. The European model runs about 6 to 8 hours slower, holding off the main rain until after 8 p.m.
GFS Shows Heaviest Rain Band From Central Mississippi Into Central Alabama by 7 p.m.
The GFS forecast valid at 7 p.m. Halloween night shows a narrow band of heavier rain stretching from southwest Mississippi northeast through Jackson and into central Alabama near Tuscaloosa and Birmingham. Embedded thunderstorms are possible within this band.
Another pocket of heavier rain appears farther north near the Mississippi and Tennessee border. Lighter rain spreads across Louisiana, the Gulf Coast, and the Florida Panhandle at the same time.
European Model Delays Main Rain Until After 8 p.m. Saturday
The European model is running about 6 to 8 hours behind the GFS. Under that scenario, most trick-or-treat activities during the late afternoon and early evening could stay mostly dry before rain moves in after 8 p.m.
The gap between the two models makes timing the biggest question for Halloween. A difference of just a few hours could decide whether evening events stay dry or turn wet.
Halloween Plans Across Mississippi and Alabama Do Not Need Canceling Yet
Families and event organizers do not need to cancel Halloween plans at this point. The forecast is still several days out, and the timeline for rain is expected to be updated throughout the week.
Outdoor parties and trunk-or-treat events should have an indoor backup or rain plan ready. Rain gear and a way to receive weather alerts will help if thunderstorms arrive earlier than expected.
Rain Timing Could Affect Saturday Evening Travel Across the Deep South
Heavier downpours could reduce visibility and create slick roads on Saturday evening, especially in central Mississippi and central Alabama. Drivers should slow down and watch for children walking near roadways after dark.
Rain may linger into the overnight hours if the slower European timing verifies, keeping many roads wet across the region into early Sunday morning.
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