IRVINE, CA — Homes in Louisiana face more extreme-weather exposure than any other state, according to new Cotality research that ranks the nation’s highest- and lowest-risk places for property damage by 2050. The analysis says losses tied to flooding, hurricanes and severe convective storms are set to climb sharply over the next quarter-century.
Cotality’s rankings are based on projected average annual losses, or AAL, for weather perils affecting property. The company says the numbers show a broad national trend: even states considered safer today are still headed for higher costs as the climate shifts and local hazards intensify.
The findings also highlight a key distinction. A state can have lower overall losses than another and still face steep growth in damage over time. In Cotality’s view, that means the most important question is not just where risk is highest now, but where it is rising fastest.
Louisiana leads the nation as flooding overtakes hurricane wind by 2050
Louisiana ranks first on Cotality’s all-peril list, with current weather-related losses estimated at $6.7 billion. Hurricane wind is now the state’s costliest threat, but inland flooding is projected to become the biggest driver of damage by 2050.
The company estimates inland flooding alone will reach $3.8 billion in AAL by midcentury. Overall, Louisiana’s total annual losses from all weather perils are projected to rise 70.3% to $11.4 billion, making it the most exposed state in the country in the study’s framework.
Dr. Howard Botts, Cotality’s chief scientist, said the results challenge the usual mental map of weather danger. He noted that places people often associate with headline disasters are not always the ones carrying the deepest property risk, especially when geography and rainfall patterns combine.
Mississippi and Florida stay near the top because hurricane wind remains dominant
Mississippi and Florida rank second and third, and both states are driven primarily by hurricane wind exposure. In both places, Cotality expects hurricane wind to remain the leading peril through 2050 even as losses continue to climb.
Florida’s total losses from all perils are projected to rise 62.3%, from $10.8 billion today to $17.5 billion in 2050. Mississippi’s losses are expected to increase 54.1% over the same stretch, moving from $2.9 billion to $4.5 billion.
The ranking underscores how coastal and near-coastal states remain highly vulnerable to wind damage, even as the financial impact of those storms grows. The study treats the cost of each peril as a property problem, not just a weather event.
West Virginia’s flood risk stands out despite its smaller housing stock
West Virginia lands fourth on the list, largely because of inland flooding. Cotality places its estimated average annual losses at $989 million, a major burden in a state with roughly 900,000 homes.
Botts said the state’s topography helps explain the risk. Much of West Virginia’s housing sits in mountain valleys, and as the region gets wetter, flood exposure increases sharply even without the hurricane and wildfire headlines that dominate attention elsewhere.
Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Texas, Alabama and Missouri round out the rest of the top 10. Together, those states illustrate that the greatest weather losses are not limited to one type of climate or one region of the country.
Even the safest states face rising costs from storms, winter weather and flooding
At the other end of the ranking, the District of Columbia is Cotality’s lowest-risk jurisdiction, with just $31 million in combined losses from all weather perils. Pennsylvania follows, then Maryland, Michigan and Virginia.
Across the 10 lowest-risk states, severe convective storms, severe winter storms and inland flooding are the leading threats. Oregon is the exception in that group, with earthquakes ranking as its top peril rather than weather.
Cotality says the combined projected losses for the 10 lowest-risk states total $10.9 billion, which is roughly the same as Florida alone today. The company’s message is that “low risk” still means meaningful exposure, not immunity from costly disasters.
California and Texas carry the most homes and the largest property totals at risk
When the company measures the number of homes exposed, California ranks first with 10.4 million homes and $18.9 billion in projected losses. Earthquakes are the state’s leading peril, followed by wildfire and inland flooding.
Cotality says California’s wildfire losses are projected to nearly double by 2050, rising from $2.9 billion to $5 billion. That jump reflects how quickly the financial toll can increase when large housing markets overlap with multiple hazards.
Texas ranks second on this measure, also with 10.4 million homes at risk and $11.5 billion in AAL. Hurricane wind, hurricane flooding and inland flooding are currently the costliest perils there, but severe convective storms are projected to take the top spot by 2050 at $7.4 billion.
Botts said state rankings are only a starting point. He argued that insurers, lenders and policymakers need county, ZIP code and property-level data to understand where risk is concentrated and how to price for it before disaster strikes.