WASHINGTON, DC — Storm damage is already weighing heavily on the U.S. housing market, and a new analysis says the financial toll is likely to rise fast in the years ahead. Cotality, a property data and analytics company, released a report Wednesday projecting larger losses from extreme weather across the country by 2050.
The company says the states most exposed are not always the ones people expect. While California, Texas and Florida often come to mind first, Cotality’s ranking points to the places where extreme-weather risk is most concentrated and where homeowners could face the steepest financial strain.
The analysis looks at major perils including flooding, hurricanes and severe convective storms. It also reflects a changing insurance market, with premiums rising and some insurers pulling back from high-risk areas altogether.
Louisiana faces the sharpest overall risk from severe storms
Cotality ranked Louisiana as the state most exposed to extreme-weather losses overall. The company says the state’s homes are especially vulnerable to severe storms, with hurricanes playing a major role in the damage profile.
The numbers are already large. Louisiana is seeing about $6.7 billion in average annual losses from extreme weather, mostly from hurricanes. By 2050, Cotality projects that figure will reach $11.4 billion, driven largely by more inland flooding.
The state’s ranking reflects both the likelihood of damaging events and the severity of the losses when they occur. That combination puts Louisiana at the top of the list in Cotality’s risk-scoring model.
Mississippi and Florida also face major hurricane-driven losses
Mississippi and Florida follow Louisiana as the next two most vulnerable states in the analysis. Both face substantial exposure to hurricanes, which remain one of the most expensive threats to the housing market in coastal states.
Cotality estimates that total housing-market losses from extreme weather will increase by about 62% in Mississippi by 2050. In Florida, the projected increase is about 54% over the same period.
Those increases show how even states already used to storm damage may face a steeper financial burden in coming decades. The company says the combination of severe weather and rising insurance pressure is making the risk picture worse for homeowners.
Inland flooding is pushing risk deeper into the country
The danger is not limited to coastal states. Cotality says places farther inland, including West Virginia, are likely to see a larger toll from flooding that is happening away from the shoreline.
That shift matters because it broadens the number of homeowners who may be affected by extreme-weather losses. The company’s analysis suggests that flooding and other inland hazards are becoming a more important part of the national risk picture, not just a coastal problem.
Dr. Howard Botts, Cotality’s chief scientist, said the biggest concentrations of risk are not always where people would expect them. He said residents often think first of California, Texas and Florida, but the most severe risk can appear in other places as well.
Even lower-risk states are projected to see bigger losses
Cotality says no state is likely to be spared from rising weather damage. In its analysis, the 10 least-exposed states to weather-related disasters are still projected to see losses increase by nearly 38% by 2050.
That compares with an expected rise of about 47% in the 10 riskiest states. The gap is meaningful, but the company says it does not change the basic direction of the trend: weather losses are expected to go up almost everywhere.
Botts said “low risk” does not mean “no risk.” He added that every state has a different mix of hazards and resilience, but losses are projected to rise regardless of where a state lands in the rankings.
California and Texas already absorb the largest dollar losses
Although Louisiana ranks highest in risk concentration, California and Texas currently lead the country in total annual financial losses from extreme weather. Cotality says California is losing an average of $18.2 billion a year, while Texas is losing $11.5 billion.
Those figures are also expected to increase by 2050. The company projects annual losses will rise to $22.4 billion in California and $16.5 billion in Texas, underscoring the scale of damage already hitting the two states.
The numbers show the difference between total losses and relative exposure. Some states have the highest dollar totals because of their size, housing stock and repeated disaster costs, while others rank higher in vulnerability because the risk is more concentrated.
Another study says convective storms have driven huge insurance payouts
Cotality’s findings line up with other research showing how expensive severe weather has become for insurers and homeowners. Earlier this year, climate risk modeling firm First Street released a separate report focused on severe convective storms.
That analysis found the short-duration, high-impact storms have led to $794 billion in total insurance payouts over the past 25 years. First Street said that is more than the combined losses from flooding, earthquakes and drought.
Taken together, the studies point to a housing market under growing climate pressure. For homeowners, the warning is not only about future storms, but about a financial burden that is already here and expected to keep rising.