NEW YORK, NY — A developing storm system is expected to bring a messy and potentially dangerous stretch of weather to the tri-state area, with severe storms, periods of heavy rain and even some accumulating snow in parts of the Hudson Valley. The risk is unfolding through the afternoon and evening as the system moves northeast and colder air pours in behind it.
Officials say damaging wind gusts are the main concern if storms intensify, though large hail and even a brief tornado remain possible. A tornado warning was issued for Queens until 2 p.m., and a tornado watch is in effect for several New Jersey counties through 7 p.m. Flash flood warnings were also appearing across parts of New Jersey by early afternoon.
Queens warning and New Jersey counties under a tornado watch
The immediate alert level is highest in Queens, where a tornado warning was posted until 2 p.m. That means people in the warned area were urged to seek shelter right away as storms moved through.
At the same time, a tornado watch covered Hunterdon, Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean, Somerset and Warren counties in New Jersey until 7 p.m. The Storm Prediction Center added a 2% tornado threat Thursday morning, underscoring that the chance is low but not zero as the system develops.
Weather officials also said the overall severe weather threat remains low. Still, the combination of wind, rain and fast-moving storms means conditions could change quickly during the afternoon window.
Storm timing points to the busiest hours from 1 p.m. to 7 p.m.
The most active period for storms is expected between 1 p.m. and 7 p.m., with cells moving up from South Jersey and tracking northeast toward New York City, Long Island and Connecticut. By late afternoon and evening, conditions should become less favorable for stronger storms.
Even without widespread severe weather, the rain itself may create problems during the commute. Heavy downpours could lead to reduced visibility, slick roads and gusty winds, especially where stronger pockets of rain pass through.
Drivers should also be ready for nuisance flooding in urban areas and places with poor drainage. The timing overlaps with the evening commute, and forecasters said that could make travel more difficult across the region.
Heavy rain could complicate the evening commute and Giants game traffic
Periods of steady rain and locally heavy downpours are likely to make for a rough afternoon on the roads. The weather could also affect people heading to MetLife Stadium for the Giants game, where tailgating and travel may be damp and slow.
Winds are expected to pick up around midday, with gusts reaching 20 to 30 mph in parts of the region. Those conditions can add to the feeling of a raw, unsettled day and make driving more difficult when rain is coming down harder.
Urban flooding is possible where drains cannot handle the heaviest bursts of rain. Forecasters warned that wet roadways and lower visibility may be the main impacts for many neighborhoods, even if storms do not become severe.
Hudson Valley and northern New Jersey could see snow as temperatures plunge
As colder air moves in tonight, some of the rain is expected to change over to wet snow, mainly well north and west of New York City. The highest elevations in the Hudson Valley are the main area of concern for accumulation.
Ulster County is under a winter weather advisory tonight into Friday morning, and forecasters said as much as 3 inches of snow is possible in the higher elevations. Snow showers could also reach other parts of the Hudson Valley and northern New Jersey by Friday morning’s commute.
Most communities are not expected to see significant snow totals, but even a light coating could make roads slick and cut visibility. That could be especially noticeable in elevated areas where temperatures drop faster overnight.
A sharp cold blast follows the storm and keeps the weekend chilly
The bigger change after the rain and snow may be the temperature drop. Once the storm moves out, a much colder air mass settles over the region, sending wind chills into the 30s Friday morning and keeping them there for much of the day.
That kind of shift will be noticeable after milder weather earlier in the week. Forecasters say a heavy winter coat may be necessary, especially for the morning commute and for anyone spending long periods outside.
The weekend should turn sunnier as high pressure builds back in, but the cold will linger. Highs will struggle to get out of the 40s, with overnight lows in the 20s and 30s before a gradual warm-up starts next week.