OKLAHOMA CITY, OK — A dangerous storm system is moving through the Plains today, with forecasters warning that severe storms, tornadoes and flash flooding could persist well into the night. The most serious threats are centered on Oklahoma, Kansas and northern Texas, where a tornado watch is already in effect and the atmosphere is expected to keep charging storms through the evening.
Meteorologists say a strong disturbance moving out of New Mexico is helping thunderstorms form as warm, moist air pushes north. That setup is creating conditions for rotating storms, powerful wind gusts and large hail across a broad stretch of the central United States.
SPC watch covers 73 counties until 10 p.m. CT
The Storm Prediction Center issued the tornado watch at 1:25 p.m. Monday for parts of Oklahoma, Kansas and northern Texas. It remains in place until 10 p.m. Central Time and covers 73 counties in all, including areas near Oklahoma City, Norman, Wichita and Wichita Falls.
In Oklahoma, the watch includes 39 counties, mainly in the western and central parts of the state. Kansas has 26 counties under the watch, concentrated in central and southern areas. In northern Texas, eight counties are included: Archer, Baylor, Clay, Foard, Hardeman, Knox, Wichita and Wilbarger.
A tornado watch means tornadoes are possible, not that one has already been observed. Forecasters say the environment is favorable for storms to become tornadic as the day progresses.
Oklahoma and south-central Kansas face the highest tornado risk
The strongest tornado potential is expected from central Oklahoma into south-central Kansas, where the Storm Prediction Center indicates a 10 percent chance of tornado activity. That level of risk is enough to make forecasters especially alert for storms that can quickly rotate and intensify.
Some of the most closely watched cities in that zone include Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Wichita and nearby communities. Forecasters say the setup supports storms that may initially form as supercells, the kind of powerful thunderstorms that can produce tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds.
Later in the day, those storms are expected to organize into faster-moving lines. That change could broaden the wind threat even if tornadoes remain scattered and brief.
Hurricane-force gusts could hit parts of Oklahoma and north Texas
Wind is shaping up to be one of the biggest hazards. Forecasters say the strongest gusts could reach hurricane force in parts of Oklahoma and northern Texas, especially near Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Wichita Falls and Denton.
Those gusts are expected to range from 65 to 80 mph in the most intense sections of the storm line, particularly where the line bulges forward. Meteorologists caution that the exact location of the worst winds is still uncertain.
Farther south in west-central Texas, storms should be weaker overall, but damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado are still possible during the evening. The overall severe threat is lower there than in the areas farther north.
Late afternoon setup could trigger rotating supercells first
Forecasters expect the main round of severe weather to develop by late afternoon along a boundary separating dry air from humid air across western Oklahoma and south-central Kansas. That kind of boundary often acts as a trigger for thunderstorms when the atmosphere is already unstable.
At first, some storms may form as supercells. These rotating storms are especially dangerous because they can produce tornadoes, destructive wind gusts and hail before they merge into larger groups.
An earlier batch of storms moving from western Oklahoma toward southern Kansas could also rotate, although conditions near the ground are less favorable there and may limit the severity. Even so, forecasters are watching that area closely for any storm that strengthens unexpectedly.
Cold front may turn scattered storms into a fast-moving line
By early evening, a cold front is expected to catch up with the thunderstorms. That should help them merge into a line, increasing the risk of destructive straight-line winds over a wider area.
Once storms organize this way, the wind threat can become more widespread even if the tornado threat becomes less concentrated. The line is expected to extend south into west-central Texas during the evening hours, keeping parts of the region under threat after sunset.
Large hail is also still in play. The risk area has expanded north and east, and some storms could produce hail measuring 1 to 1.5 inches across. Combined with strong wind and isolated tornadoes, that makes this a multifaceted severe weather event for much of the Plains.