SAN ANTONIO, TX — A cold front is expected to move across Texas Monday evening and overnight, setting off strong to severe thunderstorms in parts of North and Central Texas. The system arrives after a warm, very muggy day across much of the state, and the timing means the most intense storms could develop after dark.
Forecasters say the front will not bring an immediate sharp temperature drop for everyone, but it will sharpen the thunderstorm threat as it moves east. South Texas, including San Antonio, should see the front later, which lowers the severe risk there but does not eliminate rain and lightning altogether.
The weather pattern also comes with a widespread warmup for early November. Temperatures are expected to run well above normal before the front passes, especially from Austin and Waco to Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston.
Foggy, muggy start gives way to an unusually warm Monday
South-Central Texas is expected to begin Monday with mild, very humid conditions. In San Antonio, morning temperatures should be in the upper 60s, and patchy dense fog is likely across the region.
Visibility could drop below a quarter-mile at times, especially from 5 a.m. to 9 a.m. That may affect the morning commute and other early travel before the fog lifts later in the morning.
Once the fog clears, temperatures should rise steadily. San Antonio is expected to reach 80 degrees by noon and top out around 82 to 83 degrees, while several other Texas cities may climb into the mid-80s, about 5 to 10 degrees above average for early November.
North Texas faces the highest severe-weather risk Monday night
The first round of storms is expected to develop along the cold front in North Texas during the evening, then move east through the night. That area carries the strongest concern for severe weather, with a level 2 of 5 risk issued.
Wichita Falls, Denton, Sherman, Abilene and the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex are included in that elevated threat area. Damaging wind is the main hazard, but large hail and a few tornadoes are also possible.
The setup matters because the storms are expected to arrive while the front is still organizing. That can create a narrow but potentially dangerous window for fast-moving storms, especially for people traveling after sunset or sleeping through the overnight hours.
Hill Country storms may be strong but are less likely to turn severe
As the front keeps moving south and east, storms are expected to reach the Texas Hill Country overnight. The threat there is lower than in North Texas, and forecasters have removed cities such as Kerrville, Fredericksburg, Llano and Blanco from the level 1 risk area.
Even with the lower risk, a few storms could still become strong. Gusty winds and small hail remain possible in the Hill Country, especially between midnight and 5 a.m. Tuesday.
That means the region is still likely to see unsettled weather, even if the more dangerous ingredients stay farther north. Residents should still watch for sudden downpours, lightning and brief bursts of stronger wind as the front passes through.
San Antonio sees a lower chance of severe storms early Tuesday
The cold front should not reach the San Antonio metro area until roughly 4 a.m. to 9 a.m. Tuesday. During that window, forecasters put rain and storm chances at about 40% to 60%.
The severe threat is considered quite low locally, but a few storms could still produce frequent lightning and a short period of heavy rain. The rainfall is expected to be brief, generally lasting less than an hour and bringing a half-inch or less to the area.
That timing could matter for anyone heading out early Tuesday morning. Forecasters noted that people with plans to vote should consider carrying an umbrella, since showers could overlap with the morning commute or polling-place trips.
Cooler air settles in for the rest of the week
Once the front clears, cooler and drier air is expected to settle over Texas for several days. Tuesday’s high temperatures should only reach the upper 70s in the San Antonio area, with overnight lows falling back into the mid-50s.
The pattern is expected to hold through Wednesday and Thursday, with daytime highs staying in the upper 70s and nighttime lows remaining in the mid-50s. In the Hill Country, temperatures should run a few degrees cooler, and lows could dip into the upper 40s in the second half of the week.
For a stretch that begins with fog, warmth and storm chances, the overall shift will be noticeable. The front’s passage brings a more comfortable feel, but not before it leaves a line of potentially strong storms across parts of Texas.