WASHINGTON, DC — A powerful storm system is expected to organize over the western United States and then sweep into the Plains early next week, with the potential to unleash severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, flooding rain and damaging winds across a broad swath of the country.
Meteorologist Max Schuster, who hosts the YouTube channel Max Velocity – Severe Weather Center, said the setup could become one of the strongest storms to hit the Great Plains in several months. The system is expected to spread impacts from the Rocky Mountains to the East Coast as November begins, making the first days of the month unusually active.
Schuster also warned that the weather pattern may not stop with this one event. He said later November could bring more storms if larger-scale changes in the atmosphere begin to influence the country’s weather.
Two systems are lining up, but the second one looks far stronger
Schuster said two separate storm systems will affect the United States over the coming days, although the first should be much weaker than the second. The early system will gradually fade over the weekend, leaving scattered showers across the Great Plains before moisture spreads toward the Midwest and Ohio Valley.
By Sunday, November 1, some rain may reach the Great Lakes and parts of the East Coast, but most of it is expected to stay light. That setup will help prepare the ground for the more serious storm developing farther west.
Meanwhile, a surge of Pacific moisture tied to an atmospheric river is forecast to move into Southern California and the Desert Southwest late Saturday and Sunday. That moisture will help create a new low-pressure area near Utah and Idaho, setting up widespread precipitation across the region.
Monday looks like the day with the highest severe weather risk
As the storm crosses the Rockies, it is expected to strengthen over Colorado and Kansas early Monday, November 2. Schuster said it could become one of the most powerful low-pressure systems to form over the Great Plains in about five months.
Strong winds wrapping around the system will pull warm, moist air north from the Gulf of Mexico. That combination should create favorable conditions for thunderstorms ahead of the advancing cold front.
The broad area of concern stretches from Nebraska and Iowa south through Oklahoma and Texas. Schuster said the exact location of the highest threat will depend on how fast the storm moves east and where the strongest winds and moisture overlap.
Central Oklahoma may have the best setup for tornadoes Monday evening
Schuster said central and eastern Oklahoma currently appear to have some of the most favorable conditions for tornado development Monday evening. Even so, damaging straight-line winds and large hail could affect areas outside the main tornado corridor.
Forecast models from both the American GFS and the European system are showing increasing agreement on the storm’s overall structure. Schuster said that gives him more confidence that a significant event is coming, though it does not mean every community inside the risk area will see severe weather.
By Monday evening, widespread rain should cover much of the Midwest, while potentially dangerous thunderstorms continue from the Dallas area north toward Springfield, Missouri. Some storms could remain active overnight across Texas, Arkansas and Missouri, raising concern because nighttime storms are harder to notice while people are sleeping.
Rain and severe storms are expected to keep moving east through midweek
By Tuesday, November 3, the main low-pressure system should lift north toward Minnesota and begin to weaken. Schuster said, however, that another low-pressure center could form farther south, possibly near Arkansas or Missouri, keeping severe weather in play.
That secondary development could preserve the threat of damaging winds, large hail and isolated tornadoes across portions of Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Tennessee and eastern Texas. Schuster also pointed to Houston, San Antonio, Dallas, Tulsa and Little Rock as places that may need close monitoring depending on the storm’s speed and position.
He expects Tuesday’s storms to be more scattered than Monday’s, but individual cells could still become dangerous. By Wednesday, November 4, the system should shift into the Southeast, where Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, South Carolina and the Florida Panhandle could see isolated severe thunderstorms and a few tornadoes.
Flooding rain and mountain snow could spread far beyond the severe weather zone
Schuster said excessive rainfall may be one of the storm’s biggest impacts. In the Desert Southwest, the first flooding concerns are expected to develop over the weekend, with some places north and east of Phoenix, Arizona, possibly receiving four to five inches of rain.
He also warned about flooding near parts of Interstate 17 in Arizona, where intense rain can quickly trigger runoff. As the system moves east, one to three inches of rain could fall across large sections of the Plains, Midwest and Mississippi Valley.
He identified areas around Minneapolis, Fargo, Chicago and Kansas City as potential locations for heavier precipitation, along with parts of the Ohio Valley and lower Mississippi Valley. The biggest flooding uncertainty is where repeated thunderstorms may train over the same communities, especially in Louisiana, Arkansas, Iowa and Illinois.
The West may see heavy rain, major snow and a wetter start to November
Before the strongest storm reaches the Plains, Halloween weekend is expected to look very different from region to region. Schuster said the Northeast should have some of the better weather for outdoor celebrations Saturday evening, October 31, while the Midwest may see clouds and scattered showers.
Farther south, Dallas and San Antonio should improve as the earlier disturbance moves away, though Houston and New Orleans could still see showers. Miami may have a wetter evening, with Schuster estimating about a 70 percent chance of rain between 5 p.m. and 9 p.m.
Across the West, the approaching Pacific storm could bring rain to Southern California and locally heavy downpours to Arizona, while higher elevations pick up significant snow. Near Silverton, Colorado, Schuster expects one to two feet of snow in some mountain locations, with the Sierra Nevada potentially seeing as much as three feet.
He said the event likely marks the beginning of a more active pattern, not the end of it. Additional systems may cross the country later in November, and changes involving the polar vortex could eventually open the door to colder Arctic air and possibly a more substantial winter storm later in the month.