ILLINOIS — Severe weather is making a return to the Midwest next week, but the higher chances currently appear to stay west and south of Illinois. A few stronger storms could sneak into the state Monday night with some wind potential, though the tornado risk remains low. The bigger concern for Illinois will be heavy rain, with 1 to 3 inches likely statewide and some minor flooding possible.
Main Severe Threat on Monday Stays Over Iowa and Missouri
The main severe weather potential on Monday is focused west of Illinois, across parts of Iowa and Missouri. The outlook area stretches near Des Moines and Iowa City south through Kirksville, Jefferson City, and toward Kansas City.
Illinois sits outside the primary severe zone, with the Quad Cities, Quincy, and St. Louis area closest to its eastern edge. Additional severe potential also exists east of Illinois, leaving the state between the two areas of higher concern.
Stronger Storms Could Bring Gusty Winds Monday Night
A few stronger storms may reach Illinois Monday night as the system moves east. High wind shear in the atmosphere could support gusty winds with some of these storms, especially in western parts of the state.
Instability is expected to stay low, which should keep the tornado risk quite limited. A significant increase in the severe threat is considered very unlikely at this point, though forecast updates will follow if conditions change.
Heavy Rain Totals of 1 to 3 Inches Expected Statewide
Heavy rain is expected to be the main hazard across Illinois next week, with 1 to 3 inches of rain likely statewide. Totals in this range could lead to minor flooding, particularly in low-lying areas, along small streams, and on roads with poor drainage.
Communities from Rockford, Chicago, and Joliet through Peoria, Bloomington-Normal, Champaign, and Springfield could all see a soaking. Southern Illinois, including Mount Vernon, Marion, and Carbondale, is also expected to pick up heavy rain during the stretch.
Saturday Morning Rain in Northern Illinois Followed by Periodic Rounds Through Wednesday
The heaviest rain is expected to arrive in two main phases. Northern Illinois, including the Chicago area, Rockford, and DeKalb, will see the first round of heavy rain on Saturday morning.
Additional rounds of heavy rain are expected periodically from Monday night into Wednesday evening across much of the state. Drivers should be prepared for wet roads, reduced visibility, and possible ponding during the heaviest downpours throughout the week.
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