GULFPORT, MS — The latest modeling continues to show the biggest weekend rain totals stretching from southeast Louisiana eastward toward Pensacola. The heaviest amounts are focused on the Mississippi coast, where totals of more than 10 inches are showing up on the latest run. New Orleans, Mobile, Hattiesburg, and Pensacola are all forecast to pick up several inches of rain. Areas farther inland and to the west are expected to see much lighter totals.
Gulfport Leads the Region With a 10.8-Inch Forecast Total
Gulfport stands out with the highest projected total on the model run at 10.8 inches. The core of the heaviest rain sits over the Mississippi coast and nearby coastal waters.
Rain of this magnitude could cause significant flooding in low-lying coastal neighborhoods and areas with poor drainage. Totals near Gulfport are more than double what many surrounding cities are forecast to receive.
Mobile, Hattiesburg, and Pensacola Fall Inside the Heavy Rain Zone
Mobile is forecast to receive 6.65 inches, making it one of the wettest spots outside the Mississippi coast. Hattiesburg follows at 5.09 inches, while Pensacola is projected to pick up 4.87 inches.
These cities sit within the outlined zone of heaviest rain stretching across southern Mississippi, southwest Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle. Repeated downpours over the weekend could lead to ponding and flooding on roadways.
New Orleans and Bogalusa Each Projected Near 4.66 Inches
Southeast Louisiana is also in line for heavy rain, with New Orleans and Bogalusa each forecast at 4.66 inches. The heavy rain zone covers much of the area east and south of Lake Pontchartrain.
The coastal marshes south of New Orleans also show high totals on the model run. Urban flooding could become a concern in New Orleans if heavy rain falls in a short period.
Totals Drop Sharply West and North of the Heavy Rain Zone
Rain amounts fall off quickly outside the main zone. Baton Rouge is forecast at just 0.75 inches, while McComb comes in at 0.67 inches and Natchez at 0.63 inches.
Jackson is projected at 0.71 inches, Alexandria at 0.52, Lafayette at 0.35, and Monroe at only 0.10 inches. To the northeast, Meridian, Demopolis, and Montgomery fall in the range of 1.42 to 1.66 inches.
Coastal Residents Should Prepare for Weekend Flooding
Residents along the Mississippi and Alabama coasts, southeast Louisiana, and the western Florida Panhandle should prepare for heavy rain and possible flooding this weekend. Low-lying areas, underpasses, and roads near creeks and bayous face the greatest risk.
Exact totals may shift as new model runs come in, but the overall signal for heavy coastal rain remains consistent. Drivers should avoid flooded roadways and keep checking local forecasts throughout the weekend.
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