NEW YORK, NY — A developing storm system is expected to organize into a nor’easter by Friday, bringing rain, gusty winds, and the season’s first significant snow to parts of the Northeast. The biggest impacts are expected from Thursday into Saturday, with travel disruptions possible along the I-95 corridor and in higher terrain farther north.
The FOX Forecast Center says the system will race east from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley before strengthening near the Atlantic coast. While major cities along the shoreline are expected to see mainly rain, elevations in upstate New York, northern New England, and nearby mountain ranges could pick up accumulating snow as colder air moves in.
Severe weather threat starts in the Ohio and Tennessee valleys
Before the storm reaches the Northeast, it is expected to bring a severe weather risk to parts of the lower Ohio Valley and western Tennessee Valley on Wednesday. FOX Weather said scattered thunderstorms were expected to peak during the evening as a cold front pushed through the region.
The National Weather Service risk outlined by FOX Weather includes a Level 2 out of 5 threat for severe storms across parts of Kentucky, Tennessee, Illinois, and Indiana. The main concerns are damaging wind gusts, with an isolated tornado also possible. That early-round activity is tied to the same system that will later track toward the East Coast and form the nor’easter.
A strong ridge of high pressure over the western U.S. is helping colder Canadian air push south, while warmer air remains farther west. That contrast is helping the low-pressure system develop and intensify as it moves east.
Rain spreads into Philadelphia and New York City by Thursday night
By Thursday, the storm is expected to move closer to the Northeast and begin affecting the I-95 corridor. FOX Weather says showers may reach parts of the coastal corridor during the day, while snow begins showing up in Vermont, New Hampshire, and portions of upstate New York.
By Thursday night, the center of low pressure is expected to approach the New Jersey coast. That setup could bring periods of heavy rain to Philadelphia and New York City, with the rain spreading farther inland into Pennsylvania and upstate New York.
Forecasters say travel impacts could worsen late Thursday and continue into Friday as winds increase and precipitation becomes heavier. The exact extent of the impacts will depend on how quickly the storm moves offshore and how much colder air can filter into the region.
Friday brings the strongest nor’easter setup near Long Island
The storm is expected to take on more classic nor’easter characteristics on Friday as it tracks northward roughly parallel to the East Coast. The center should remain south of or near Long Island, where falling pressure will help strengthen northeasterly winds.
FOX Weather says the system is not expected to become especially powerful, but it could still create unsettled coastal conditions. Wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph are possible, and Boston could see periods of rain and gusty winds through much of Friday evening.
New York City is expected to dry out by late Friday, although some snowflakes could mix in closer to the coast. No significant accumulation is expected in the city or in other major population centers along the I-95 corridor south of Maine.
Higher elevations face the best chance for several inches of snow
The heaviest snow is expected in climatologically favored higher terrain, including the White Mountains of New Hampshire and Maine, the Green Mountains of Vermont, the Adirondacks in New York, and parts of the Appalachians in West Virginia and Massachusetts. FOX Weather says those areas could see 5 to 8 inches of snow.
Some of the highest elevations of the Adirondacks and Vermont’s Green Mountains could receive as much as a foot. The heaviest snowfall there is expected Friday afternoon and evening, when colder air arrives and the storm is strongest.
Lower elevations are more likely to see a mix of rain and snow, or snow that is wetter and heavier than usual. Temperatures near freezing could reduce snow ratios and limit totals in some places, even where flakes fall for several hours.
Lake-effect snow could extend the storm’s reach into the Great Lakes
As the system strengthens, colder northerly winds are also expected to cross the warmer waters of the Great Lakes. That setup could trigger a notable lake-effect snow event starting Friday and lasting into the beginning of the weekend.
FOX Weather says the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, including areas near Lake Superior, could see the most substantial totals there, with several inches possible and some spots topping half a foot. Along Lake Michigan, bands of snow may push inland into extreme northern Indiana.
South Bend could receive 1 to 3 inches, while parts of the shoreline north of Grand Rapids could pick up 3 to 5 inches. More generally, the storm may produce 1 to 3 inches across the Allegheny Plateau in New York and Pennsylvania, with amounts decreasing farther south.
Lingering snow showers could continue into Saturday morning
By Saturday, the storm is expected to move toward the Canadian Maritimes, but moisture wrapping around the system could keep snow showers going in parts of the Northeast. Those lingering bands may extend from Maine south through the Appalachians, including portions of upstate New York and central Pennsylvania.
Most of the precipitation should taper off by Saturday morning as the system pulls farther away. Even so, the late-week timing means some travelers could still encounter slippery conditions and low visibility before the storm fully exits the region.
For now, the forecast points to a broad mix of coastal rain, inland snow, and elevated mountain accumulations, with the sharpest impacts most likely from Thursday night through Friday night.