ATLANTA, GA — AccuWeather says the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is effectively over, even though the official season does not end until Nov. 30. Forecasters said the weather pattern now in place makes another direct tropical impact on the United States unlikely this year.
The call comes after a season that has been unusually quiet by modern standards, with just 10 named storms and only one hurricane. That final hurricane, Isaias, made a destructive landfall on Florida’s Panhandle in October and helped make this one of the strangest Atlantic seasons in more than a century.
El Niño changed the outlook as the season unfolded
AccuWeather’s outlook shifted several times as El Niño strengthened earlier than expected. In March, the forecast called for 11 to 16 named storms, but by mid-August it had dropped to eight to 11 named storms, three to four hurricanes, and one to two major hurricanes. The estimate was trimmed again in September.
Lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said the season has been “anything but typical” because El Niño played a major role in suppressing Atlantic activity. The pattern increases wind shear over the basin, and that extra turbulence can tear apart developing storms before they organize.
That same setup helped explain why the Atlantic stayed so subdued even as forecasters watched for late-season development into early November. By Nov. 3, meteorologists were still monitoring the area between the Bahamas and Bermuda, but that development window has now closed.
Arthur and Bertha hit the Gulf Coast early
The season began in mid-June with Tropical Storm Arthur, which came ashore near Matagorda Bay, Texas, and pushed flooding across the Gulf Coast. AccuWeather estimated Arthur caused between $4 billion and $6 billion in total damage and economic loss.
Tropical Storm Bertha followed in July with two Gulf Coast landfalls, first in Louisiana and then in Texas. It brought more flooding and contributed to beach erosion, adding to an already active stretch for coastal communities.
Later storms in late summer stayed mostly offshore at first. Cristobal and Dolly spent much of their time at sea before the pattern finally turned more threatening again in early fall. Even then, the season’s overall pace remained far below what many forecasters had expected.
A record-setting hurricane drought ended only in October
One of the biggest surprises of the year was how long the Atlantic went without a hurricane. In mid-September, Fay reached 70 mph, just 4 mph shy of hurricane strength. Then the Atlantic passed Sept. 21 without producing a hurricane, breaking a 112-year record.
Gonzalo formed off Africa in late September near the Cabo Verde Islands, and Hanna followed on Sept. 28 northeast of Bermuda, but neither intensified into a hurricane. That left the basin in a prolonged drought for hurricane-strength storms.
The streak finally ended on Oct. 8, when Isaias became the first Atlantic hurricane of the season. AccuWeather said that made it the latest first hurricane in 121 years, breaking another historic benchmark.
Isaias became the season’s only hurricane and a costly strike on Florida
Isaias found a pocket of lower wind shear in the Gulf and strengthened quickly. It peaked as a major Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 120 mph before weakening slightly and making landfall near Destin, Florida, at 8:30 p.m. CDT on Friday, Oct. 9, as a Category 2 hurricane.
Mandatory evacuations were ordered in Florida’s Okaloosa County ahead of landfall. The storm produced a 117 mph gust at Oriole Beach, 5.51 feet of storm surge at Panama City Beach, and more than 8 inches of rain in parts of the Panhandle.
Isaias also spawned tornadoes in Georgia and the Carolinas. AccuWeather said the storm contributed to more than 20 tornadoes and may have played a role in as many as eight indirect deaths. Preliminary damage and economic loss estimates ran from $16 billion to $20 billion.
A late subtropical system and a quiet finish to November
After Isaias, the basin managed only one more notable system. On Oct. 21, a former nor’easter picked up tropical traits over the Gulf Stream and became Subtropical Storm Josephine, the 10th named storm of the season. It later brushed Atlantic Canada.
AccuWeather said that as late as Nov. 3, forecasters were still looking at the chance of tropical or subtropical development between the Bahamas and Bermuda. That risk has now faded, and the Atlantic is expected to stay quiet into the official end of the season.
The final weeks of the year have underscored just how unusual the Atlantic was in 2026. While the Atlantic slowed down, the eastern Pacific surged ahead, driven by the same El Niño pattern that helped suppress storms closer to the United States.
The Pacific saw the opposite pattern with record activity
El Niño did not stop tropical cyclones everywhere. In the eastern Pacific, the pattern helped fuel a far busier season, one that stormed past normal totals and set records. As of Nov. 3, the central and eastern Pacific had produced 24 named storms and 13 hurricanes.
Several Pacific systems also affected areas tied to the United States. Rachel sent rain and surf into Southern California, while the remnants or impacts of other storms helped drive tropical moisture toward the Southwest. Hurricanes Lala, Lowell, and Nolo brought flooding rain to Hawaii, and Polo and Simon affected Mexico.
Forecasters say both the Atlantic and Pacific hurricane seasons officially end on Nov. 30. For the Atlantic, though, the year already looks finished in practical terms, with no further direct U.S. tropical impact expected before the calendar flips to December.