WASHINGTON, DC — A new winter forecast is putting a long stretch of the United States on alert for heavier snow, stronger cold blasts, and a sharper divide between wetter and drier regions. Meteorologist Ryan Hall says a historic El Niño is reshaping the nation’s snow map and could send major storms into places that usually see only modest winter totals.
At the center of that warning is a 1,300-mile “sleeper corridor” running from Oklahoma through Tennessee and into the Carolinas and Virginia. Hall says that band could see 15% to 30% more snow than normal, raising concern that parts of the South and lower Midwest could face dangerous conditions later this winter.
A 1,300-mile corridor could see a sharp snow increase
Hall’s forecast points to a broad zone across the middle and eastern United States where snowfall may rise well above normal. He specifically singled out cities from Charlotte, North Carolina, up to Roanoke, Virginia, for 20% to 30% more snow than average. He also highlighted Baltimore, Washington, D.C., Richmond, and Norfolk as places that could land in the higher-snow band.
In a typical winter, many cities in this corridor receive only around six inches of snow for the whole season. Hall says that could change quickly if the colder air arrives at the same time as moisture-rich storms. That combination is what could turn a generally mild setup into a much more disruptive one for roads, utilities, and daily travel.
The concern is not just snowfall totals, but timing. Hall says some areas that are used to occasional flurries could instead see repeated storms packed into a short stretch of winter, creating a bigger impact than their average snowfall numbers might suggest.
The South faces another round of winter storm risk
Hall warned that the corridor he is watching could be vulnerable to a repeat of the deadly January 2026 winter storm that hit the United States. That storm brought damaging ice and snow, left millions without power, and was blamed for nearly 180 deaths, many tied to hypothermia and cold exposure in homes without heat.
He said the present setup is one reason he is watching the lower Midwest and the East Coast’s Mid-Atlantic region so closely. In his view, the pattern could shift the biggest storm track away from the usual northern snow belt and into communities that are not as well prepared for repeated winter hits.
Hall described the situation as an “all-or-nothing” kind of winter, saying some places could get very little snow while others see a sudden burst of severe weather. He noted that strong El Niño winters have produced dramatic swings before, including big snow events in cities that usually do not see them often.
Southwest cities are also in line for bigger totals
The snow risk is not limited to the central and eastern United States. Hall says several Southwest cities could also see a notable jump in snowfall, including Reno, Nevada; Albuquerque, New Mexico; Flagstaff, Arizona; and Amarillo, Texas. He projects some of those places could get up to 30% more snow than normal.
Flagstaff stands out in the forecast. The city normally gets about six feet of snow in a winter, but Hall’s super El Niño projection puts it at just under nine feet. He said that kind of increase would be a major change for a city already known for serious winter weather.
Other parts of the Southwest and interior West may also see bigger totals than usual, even in areas that do not always get much national attention during winter storms. Hall’s model suggests that the storm impacts could reach farther west and south than many people expect when they hear “snow danger map.”
The Pacific Northwest and upper Midwest could lose snow
At the opposite end of the map, Hall says the Pacific Northwest may see some of the biggest declines. Portland, Seattle, and Spokane are all projected to finish about 30% below normal on precipitation this winter, according to his forecast.
He also says the upper Midwest could end up drier than usual. Chicago typically sees more than three feet of snow in winter, but his model points to a total closer to 27 inches, which would be a drop of more than a foot. Cities such as Indianapolis and St. Louis could also see up to 25% less snow, putting them closer to one or two feet instead of their usual two to three feet.
Even places with a long history of deep winter snow are not exempt. Hall said Utah’s mountain areas, including Alta outside Salt Lake City, may shift into a warmer and drier part of the pattern despite the state’s reputation for heavy snow.
A polar vortex disruption could change the numbers again
Hall emphasized that the forecast is not locked in. He pointed to a polar vortex collapse developing in early November as a major wild card that could send more cold air south from the Arctic and alter where the snow ends up falling later in the season.
A polar vortex is a high-altitude band of winds that usually helps keep the coldest air trapped near the North Pole. When it weakens or shifts, the jet stream can change shape and push colder weather farther south. Hall said that if the disruption becomes more significant, some of his snow projections could rise.
NOAA scientists have previously said a weakened and displaced polar vortex helped fuel the severe cold snap that hit the center of the country in February 2021. Hall says that kind of atmospheric change is one reason winter forecasts can change quickly, even when El Niño is giving a strong signal.
Why El Niño does not guarantee the same outcome every year
Hall says the current El Niño is forming in the Pacific and has pushed ocean surface temperatures to record highs, which is helping flip normal weather patterns. Still, he cautioned that no two El Niño winters are identical. That means a city can move from a snow drought to a major storm season, or vice versa, without much warning.
He pointed to Washington, D.C., as an example. In one strong El Niño winter in 1997, the capital got almost no snow. In another in 2009, it received four feet. Hall says that range is a reminder that El Niño influences the trend, but it does not dictate the exact total for every city.
To build his projections, Hall said he compared snowfall data from more than 5,000 weather stations during major El Niño winters with normal years. He then blended those results with his forecast zones and long-range model data to estimate snowfall ranges from 30% below normal to 30% above normal.