DES MOINES, IA — A severe weather threat is building across parts of Iowa Monday evening, with forecasters warning that damaging winds and a few tornadoes could develop after 5 p.m. as thunderstorms intensify ahead of an approaching cold front.
The National Weather Service in Des Moines says much of the state will see scattered showers and non-severe thunderstorms during the day, but conditions may become more dangerous later in the afternoon and evening. The agency says isolated severe storms are possible, especially in southwestern and southern Iowa.
Des Moines sits near the northern edge of the highlighted risk area, while central and northern Iowa are not currently inside the main severe weather zone.
National Weather Service sets a Level 1 severe weather risk for southwest and south-central Iowa
Forecasters have placed the affected area under a Level 1 out of 5 severe weather risk, the lowest categorical level used for severe storms. That designation means isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, but widespread severe weather is not expected at this time.
The main concern is for storms that could strengthen quickly once the late-day atmosphere becomes more favorable. Damaging winds are one of the primary hazards, and a few tornadoes remain possible within the risk area.
The watch area includes portions of southwestern and south-central Iowa, where storm development is expected to be most likely after 5 p.m.
Council Bluffs, Atlantic, Red Oak, Creston and Lamoni sit in the higher-risk corridor
The forecast area includes communities near Council Bluffs, Atlantic, Red Oak, Creston and Lamoni. Those places are among the locations that could see the strongest storms if conditions line up during the evening window.
While the threat is not widespread, the National Weather Service says isolated severe thunderstorms could form quickly. That means residents in the highlighted corridor may have little time to react if a stronger cell develops.
Even areas near the edge of the risk zone, including the Des Moines metro, should keep an eye on updates through the day as the storm track becomes clearer.
Morning showers may give way to stronger storms as the cold front moves closer
Iowa is expected to see scattered showers and thunderstorms from the morning into the afternoon, but most of that early activity should stay below severe limits. Forecasters say the more concerning round of storms is tied to the approaching cold front later Monday.
As the front moves in, the atmosphere may become more supportive of stronger thunderstorm development. That shift is why the main severe weather concern is centered on the evening hours rather than the first half of the day.
Although widespread severe weather is not currently anticipated, the National Weather Service says the setup could still support isolated stronger storms with damaging wind and tornado potential.
Officials urge Iowans to review shelter plans before storms arrive
The National Weather Service is telling residents in the risk area to stay weather aware and use multiple ways to receive warnings. That includes checking updated forecasts and having alerts turned on throughout Monday.
People who live in the highlighted threat zone should identify a safe indoor shelter before storms arrive. If a tornado warning is issued, the agency says to move to a basement or a small interior room on the lowest floor, away from windows.
Because the stronger storms may develop later in the day, forecasters are asking people to keep monitoring conditions as timing and hazards become clearer.
Why the Des Moines metro still needs to monitor the forecast closely
Des Moines is not in the center of the severe weather threat, but forecasters say it lies close enough to the edge of the risk area that residents should remain alert. Storms can shift, and even a marginal risk can produce dangerous weather in a limited area.
The National Weather Service says much of central and northern Iowa is outside the designated severe zone for now, which limits the highest threat to the southwest and south-central part of the state. Still, changing storm development later Monday could alter conditions locally.
For that reason, officials want people across the region to treat the evening forecast as a live situation and stay ready for rapid updates.